On a recent episode of “Halftime Report”, Kyle Bass brought a grim outlook for the future of America’s economy to the table. Perhaps it’s only a short future, but considering the general atmosphere of economic decline America has been experiencing recently, the numbers become a bit staggering.
Bass knows that America’s economy is largely involved in China’s economy right now, and he also knows that in China, the banking system is lending in excess of its means. Bass has drawn parallels between the economic crisis in Europe, and the economic crisis in China. He has demonstrated how in both cases, banks have lent in excess of regional countries’ GDPs, facilitating incremental collapse, or at the very least an expanding bubble destined to burst. According to Bass, such bursting bubbles are merely what’s called a “credit cycle”.
Credit isn’t money; it’s like a socially acceptable “IOU”. “My credit is good,” says the rich man; and the poor driver knows by the man’s clothes and bearing that his credit is indeed good. But in China, the rich men have been using that line too much, and they’ve plum transcended their means.
The Gross Domestic Product of China is only about ten trillion a year. Meanwhile, the banks have the country on the line for thirty-five trillion, and surrounding countries have been aggressively lending to China in order to have a controlling stake in her when the dominoes start to fall. But what those countries don’t realize is that when the dominoes fall, they’ll be knocked over as well. Most countries surrounding China have substantial investment in the country, meaning if her economy goes belly up, others will soon follow–including the USA. Bass believes 2016 could see an American economic decline of between ten and twenty percent precisely because of the shenanigans in China.
There’s good reason to believe blogger Bass’ predictions. An Argentine who currently manages hedge funds in Texas, Bass successfully predicted the debt bubble America blew in 2008 would collapse around the housing market, and he hit that nail on the head. He also successfully predicted economic shortages in Japan, and has been able to legally manipulate the stock market through his organization “The Coalition For Affordable Drugs”. The CAD was able to decrease cost on several big-ticket pharmaceuticals, against which Bass short-sold stock, and made a pretty penny.
Bass is also involved with Argentina’s president, socialist Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, so his motivations in these economic climes are anything but clear. UsefulStooges have done their job reporting Kyle Bass’ gambler investment ways. What is clear is his acumen in predicting market collapse. So far Bass has a fairly solid track record. Will that record remain solid during 2016? It seems likely, but there’s no real way to predict future outcomes except metered guess work.